Was the catastrophic flooding in Derna, Libya—one of the deadliest hydrometeorological disasters on record—an inevitable outcome of rare weather conditions, or did the design of the infrastructure fail to account for probable risks? On 10 to 11 September 2023, Storm Daniel, a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone, caused heavy rainfall that led to the collapse of two dams and more than 5000 casualties in Derna. Using a combination of atmospheric reanalysis, satellite data, and hydrologic modeling, we overcame key limitations typical of data-scarce, high-variability regions and revealed that despite the catastrophic impact, the return periods of the rainfall and flood were only a few decades. Hydraulic simulations revealed that the dam failures amplified the damage nearly 20-fold compared to a dam-free scenario. With extensive and timely implications, our findings underscore the importance of uncertainty-aware risk assessment and highlight the value of distributed flood prevention and early warning systems in mitigating risks in vulnerable regions.

 

 

The dry Sahara was potentially wetter in the past during the warm African Humid Period. Although debated, this climatic shift is a possible scenario in a future warmer climate. One major line of evidence reported for past green periods in the Sahara is the presence of paleo-lakes. Even today, Saharan desert lakes get filled from time to time. However, very little is known about these events due to the lack of available in situ observations. In addition, the hydrometeorological conditions associated with these events have never been systematically investigated. This study proposes filling this knowledge gap by examining the meteorology of lake-filling episodes (LFEs) of Sebkha el Melah – a commonly dry lake in the northwestern Sahara. Heavy-precipitation events (HPEs) and LFEs are identified using a combination of precipitation observations and lake volume estimates derived from satellite remote sensing. Weather reanalysis data are used together with three-dimensional trajectory calculations to investigate the moisture sources and characteristics of weather systems that lead to HPEs and to assess the conditions necessary for producing LFEs. Results show that hundreds of HPEs occurred between 2000 and 2021, but only six LFEs eventuated. The ratio between the increase in lake water volume during LFEs and the precipitation volume during HPEs that triggered the lake filling, known as the runoff coefficient, provides a very useful characteristic to assess storm impacts on water availability. For the six LFEs investigated in this study, the runoff coefficient ranges across 5 orders of magnitude, much lower than the ratios often cited in the literature for the Sahara. We find that LFEs are generated most frequently in autumn by the most intense HPEs, for which the key ingredients are (i) the formation of surface extratropical cyclones to the west of the North African Atlantic coast in interplay with upper-level troughs and lows, (ii) moisture convergence from the tropics and the extratropical North Atlantic, (iii) a pre-moistening of the region upstream of the catchment over the Sahara through a recycling-domino-process, (iv) coupled or sequential lifting processes (e.g. orographic lifting and large-scale forcing), and (v) the stationarity of synoptic systems that result in long-duration (typically 3 d) HPEs. Based on the insights gained into Saharan LFEs in the present-day climate, we suggest that the initial filling and persistence of Saharan lakes may be related to changes in the intensity, frequency, or synoptic pattern of HPEs rather than to a change in mean precipitation alone. Future studies can leverage these insights to better assess the mechanisms involved in the greening of the Sahara in the past and, potentially, in a warmer future.

 

More than a third of the world's population lives in drylands and is disproportionally at risk of hydrometeorological hazards such as drought and flooding. While existing studies have widely explored weather systems governing precipitation formation in humid regions, our understanding of the atmospheric processes generating precipitation in arid regions remains fragmented at best. Here we show, using a variety of precipitation datasets, that Rossby wave breaking is a key atmospheric driver of precipitation in arid regions worldwide. Rossby wave breaking contributes up to 90% of daily precipitation extremes and up to 80% of total precipitation amounts in arid regions equatorward and downstream of the midlatitude storm tracks. The relevance of Rossby wave breaking for precipitation increases with increasing land aridity. Contributions of wave breaking to precipitation dominate in the poleward and westward portions of arid subtropical regions during the cool season. Given the projected precipitation decline and the large uncertainty in projections of precipitation extremes in these regions, our findings imply that Rossby wave breaking plays a crucial role in projections and uncertainties of future precipitation changes in societally vulnerable regions that are exposed to both freshwater shortages and flood hazards.

Many efforts have been made to illuminate the nature of past hydroclimates in semi-arid and arid regions, where current and future shifts in water availability have enormous consequences on human subsistence. Deep desert aquifers, where groundwater is stored for prolonged periods, might serve as a direct record of major paleo-recharge events. To date, groundwater-based paleoclimate reconstructions have mainly focused on a relatively narrow timescale (up to ∼40 kyr), limited by the relatively short half-life of the widely used radiocarbon (5.73 kyr). Here we demonstrate the usage of deep regional aquifers in the arid southeastern Mediterranean as a hydroclimate archive for earlier Mid-to-Late Pleistocene epochs. State-of-the-art dating tools, primarily the 81Kr radioisotope (t1/2 = 229 kyr), were combined with other atmosphere-derived tracers to illuminate the impact of four distinguishable wetter episodes over the past 400 kyr, with differences in climatic conditions and paleo-recharge locations. Variations in stable water isotope composition suggest moisture transport from more proximal (Mediterranean) and distal (Atlantic) sources to different parts of the region at distinct times. Large variability in the computed noble gas-based recharge temperature (NGT), ranging $\sim$15–30 °C, cannot be explained by climate variations solely, and points to different recharge pathways, including geothermal heating in the deep unsaturated zone and recharge from high-elevation (colder) regions. The obtained groundwater record complements and enhances the interpretation of other terrestrial archives in the arid region, including a contribution of valuable information regarding the moisture source origin as reflected in the deuterium-excess values, which is unattainable from the common practice analysis of calcitic cave deposits. We conclude that similar applications in other deep (hundred-m-order) regional groundwater systems (e.g., the Sahara desert aquifers) can significantly advance our understanding of long-term (up to 1 Myr) paleo-hydroclimate in arid regions, including places where no terrestrial remnants, such as cave, lake, and spring sediments, are available.

Understanding extreme precipitation events (EPEs) and their underlying dynamical processes and moisture transport patterns is essential to mitigating EPE-related risks. In this study, we investigate the dynamics of 82 EPEs (≥100mmd-1) over the territory of Ukraine in the recent decades (1979-2019), of which the majority occurred in summer. The EPEs are identified based on precipitation observations from 215 meteorological stations and posts in Ukraine. The atmospheric variables for the case study analysis of selected EPEs and for climatological composites and trajectory calculations were taken from ERA5 reanalyses. Moisture sources contributing to the EPEs in Ukraine are identified with kinematic backward trajectories and the subsequent application of a moisture source identification scheme based on the humidity mass budget along these trajectories. The large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with EPEs was studied for a selection of representative EPEs in all seasons and with the aid of composites of all events per season. Results show that EPEs in summer occur all across Ukraine, but in other seasons EPE hotspots are mainly in the Carpathians and along the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. All EPEs were associated with a surface cyclone, with most having an upper-level trough, except for the winter events that occurred in situations with very strong westerly jets. Isentropic potential vorticity anomalies associated with EPEs in Ukraine show clear dipole structures in all seasons, however, interestingly with a different orientation of these anomaly dipoles between seasons. The analysis of moisture sources revealed a very strong case-to-case variability and often a combination of local and remote sources. Oceanic sources dominate in winter, but land evapotranspiration accounts for 60%-80% of the moisture that rains out in EPEs in the other seasons. Taken together, these findings provide a novel insight into large-scale characteristics of EPEs in Ukraine, a region with a unique geographical setting and with moisture sources as diverse as Newfoundland, the Azores, the Caspian Sea, and the Arctic Ocean.

The Sahara is the largest and driest of the hot deserts on Earth, with regions where rainfall reaches the surface on average less than once a year. Water resources are scarce, and rainfall tends to occur sporadically in space and time. While rain is a precious resource in the Sahara, heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in the desert have the potential to trigger flash floods on the barren soil. Because of the sparse rainfall monitoring network and the relatively poor performance of global models in representing rainfall over the Sahara, the analysis of Saharan HPEs has primarily relied on case studies. Therefore, general rainfall characteristics of Saharan HPEs are unexplored, and the prevailing weather conditions enabling such rainfall are unknown. To tackle this problem, we utilised satellite-derived precipitation estimations (IMERG) spanning 21 years (2000–2021) to identify ∼42⋅10³ small (>10³km²) to large (<10⁶km²) HPEs in the Sahara and to extract their rainfall properties, and atmospheric reanalyses (ERA5) to examine the corresponding meteorological conditions in which they develop. Three case studies illustrate the relevance of cyclones for exceptionally large HPEs, including one in the driest region of the Sahara. Saharan HPEs occur, on average, every second day. They are more common in summer than in the other seasons, occur most frequently in the southern Sahara, and exhibit a clear convectively-driven diurnal cycle. Winter events have, on average, larger spatial extent, longer duration, and are characterised by larger areas exhibiting more extreme rainfall in terms of return periods. Autumn HPEs are concentrated in the western Sahara, while events in the north of the desert and in its driest core in the northeast occur mainly in winter and spring. In these regions, north of the Tropic of Cancer, events are highly associated with surface cyclones. HPEs that were associated with cyclones are characterised by larger spatial extent and rainfall volume. Considering that weather and climate models often depict synoptic-scale weather systems more accurately than rainfall patterns, the association of Saharan HPEs with surface cyclones and other synoptic-scale systems can aid in comprehending the effects of climate change in the desert. Furthermore, it underscores the potential for higher predictability of these events.

Deciphering aspect-related hillslope asymmetry can enhance our understanding of the influence of climate on Earth's surface morphology and the linkage between topographic morphology and erosion processes. Although hillslope asymmetry is documented worldwide, the role of microclimatic factors in the evolution of dryland cliffs has received little attention. Here, we address this gap by quantifying aspect-dependent bedrock weathering, slope-rill morphology, and subcliff clast transport rates in the hyperarid Negev desert, Israel, based on light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived topography, clast-size measurements, and cosmogenic 10Be concentrations. Cliff retreat rates were evaluated using extrapolated profiles from dated talus flatirons and 10Be measurements from the cliff face and sub-cliff sediments. We document systematic, aspect-dependent patterns of south-facing slopes being less steep and finer-grained relative to east and north-facing aspects. In addition, cliff retreat and clast transport rates on slopes of the south-facing aspect are faster compared to the other aspects. Our data demonstrate that bedrock weathering of the cliff face and the corresponding grain size of cliff-derived clasts delivered to the slopes constitute a first-order control on cliff retreat and sediment transport rates. We demonstrate that the morphology of the cliff and the pattern of bedrock weathering co-vary with the solar radiation flux and hence that cliff evolution in hyperarid regions is modulated by aspectdependent solar radiation. These results help to better understand interactions between climate and dryland surface processes.

The impact of climate on topography, which is a theme in landscape evolution studies, has been demonstrated, mostly, at mountain range scales and across climate zones. However, in drylands, spatiotemporal discontinuities of rainfall and the crucial role of extreme rainstorms raise questions and challenges in identifying climate properties that govern surface processes. Here, we combine methods to examine hyperarid escarpment sensitivity to storm-scale forcing. Using a high-resolution DEM and field measurements, we analyzed the topography of a 40-km-long escarpment in the Negev desert (Israel). We also used rainfall intensity data from a convection-permitting numerical weather model for storm-scale statistical analysis. We conducted hydrological simulations of synthetic rainstorms, revealing the frequency of sediment mobilization along the sub-cliff slopes. Results show that cliff gradients along the hyperarid escarpment increase systematically from the wetter (90 mm yr−1) southwestern to the drier (45 mm yr−1) northeastern sides. Also, sub-cliff slopes at the southwestern study site are longer and associated with milder gradients and coarser sediments. Storm-scale statistical analysis reveals a trend of increasing extreme (>10 years return-period) intensities toward the northeast site, opposite to the trend in mean annual rainfall. Hydrological simulations based on these statistics indicate a higher frequency of sediment mobilization in the northeast, which can explain the pronounced topographic differences between the sites. The variations in landscape and rainstorm properties across a relatively short distance highlight the sensitivity of arid landforms to extreme events.

Establishing accurate palaeo-hydroclimatic reconstructions from lacustrine and marine archives is a long-standing challenge in palaeoenvironment studies. Closed-basin evaporites, and especially halite, record episodes of extremely arid conditions during rapid climate change. However, the complex limnological behaviour of deep hypersaline water bodies and the stochastic nature of the hydroclimatic regime and its variations limit detailed palaeo-hydroclimatic interpretations from such records. Therefore, a mass-balance model was developed to explore hydrology–limnology–sedimentology relationships in hypersaline environments under both deterministic and stochastic approaches that generates synthetic halite–mud sequences. Applying the model to the Holocene Dead Sea halites yields novel insights into palaeoenvironmental conditions in the Levant. The deterministic framework indicates that: (i) under a series of similar hydroclimatic cycles, the thickness of each subsequent halite interval decreases, due to the depletion of dissolved-ions storage in the brine; (ii) halite deposition requires lake levels to drop below the minimal lake level of the preceding cycle; (iii) the time interval between halite deposition and the hydrological minimum is increasingly longer in subsequent cycles. Thus, counter-intuitively, halite deposition mostly takes place as water discharge increases, providing that the water balance is still negative. The stochastic approach produced random sequences comparable to the observed Dead Sea sedimentary record. It demonstrates that some hydrological minima are not represented by halite deposition at all. Furthermore, the thickness and number of halite beds at each hydrological cycle vary substantially, depending on the specific hydrological conditions realized. Finally, these results imply that the major Dead Sea level drop at the pre-Holocene deglaciation (ca 14 ka bp), previously assumed to be a record minimum, could not have been as pronounced as suggested, and must have been milder than the subsequent drop at the early Holocene (ca 11–10 ka bp).

The yearly exceedance probability of extreme precipitation of multiple durations is crucial for infrastructure design, risk management, and policymaking. Local extremes emerge from the interaction of weather systems with local terrain features such as coastlines and orography; however, multi-duration extremes do not follow exactly the patterns of cumulative precipitation and are still not well understood. High-resolution information from weather radars could help us quantify their patterns better, but traditional extreme value analyses based on radar records were found to be too inaccurate for quantifying the extreme intensities required for impact studies. Here, we propose a novel methodology for extreme precipitation frequency analysis based on relatively short weather radar records, and we use it to investigate the coastal and orographic effects on extreme precipitation of durations between 10g min and 24g h. Combining 11 years of radar data with 10g min rain gauge data in the southeastern Mediterranean, we obtain estimates of the once in 100 years precipitation intensities with g1/426g % standard error, which is lower than those obtained using traditional approaches on rain gauge data. We identify the following three distinct regimes which respond differently to coastal and orographic forcing: short durations (g1/410g min), related to peak convective rain rates, hourly durations (g1/41g h), related to the yield of individual convective cells, and long durations (g1/46-24g h), related to the accumulation of multiple convective cells and to stratiform processes. At short and hourly durations, extreme return levels peak at the coastline, while at longer durations they peak corresponding to the orographic barriers. The distributions tail heaviness is rather uniform above the sea and rapidly changes in presence of orography, with opposing directions at short (decreasing tail heaviness, with a peak at hourly durations) and long (increasing) durations. These distinct effects suggest that short-scale hazards, such as urban pluvial floods, could be more of concern for the coastal regions, while longer-scale hazards, such as flash floods, could be more relevant in mountainous areas.

Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) can lead to deadly and costly natural disasters and are critical to the hydrological budget in regions where rainfall variability is high and water resources depend on individual storms. Thus, reliable projections of such events in the future are needed. To provide high-resolution projections under the RCP8.5 scenario for HPEs at the end of the 21 st century, and to understand the changes in sub-hourly to daily rainfall patterns, weather research and forecasting (WRF) model simulations of 41 historic HPEs in the eastern Mediterranean are compared with "pseudo global warming" simulations of the same events. This paper presents the changes in rainfall patterns in future storms, decomposed into storms' mean conditional rain rate, duration, and area. A major decrease in rainfall accumulation (-30% averaged across events) is found throughout future HPEs. This decrease results from a substantial reduction of the rain area of storms (-40%) and occurs despite an increase in the mean conditional rain intensity (+15%). The duration of the HPEs decreases (-9%) in future simulations. Regionally maximal 10-min rain rates increase (+22%), whereas over most of the region, long-duration rain rates decrease. The consistency of results across events, driven by varying synoptic conditions, suggests that these changes have low sensitivity to the specific synoptic evolution during the events. Future HPEs in the eastern Mediterranean will therefore likely be drier and more spatiotemporally concentrated, with substantial implications on hydrological outcomes of storms. Plain Language Summary Heavy precipitation events are large storms that can recharge freshwater reservoirs, but can also lead to hazardous outcomes such as flash floods. Therefore, understanding the impacts of climate change on such storms is critical. Here, a weather model similar to those used in weather forecasts is used to simulate heavy precipitation events in the eastern Mediterranean. A large collection of storms is simulated in pairs: (1) historic storms, selected for their high impact, and (2) the same storms placed in a global warming scenario projected for the end of the 21 st century. Using these simulations we ask how present-day storms would look like were they to occur at the warmer end of the 21 st century. The future storms are found to produce much less rainfall compared to their historic counterparts. This decrease in rainfall is attributed mainly to the reduction in the area covered by storms' rainfall, and happens despite increasing rainfall intensities. These results suggest that the region will be drier in the future with larger dry areas during storms; however, over short durations, it would rain more intensely over contracted areas-increasing local hazards associated with heavy precipitation events.

The weathering of continental surfaces and the transport of sediments via rivers into the oceans is an integral part of the dynamic processes that shape the Earth's surface. To understand how tectonic and climatic forcings control regional rates of weathering, we must be able to identify their effects on sedimentary archives over geologic timescales. Cosmogenic nuclides are a valuable tool to study rates of surface processes and have long been applied in fluvial systems to quantify basin-wide erosion rates. However, in large rivers, continual processes of erosion and deposition during sediment transport make it difficult to constrain how long sediments spend within the fluvial system. In this study, we examine the role of rivers in buffering erosional signals by constraining the timescales of fluvial transport in large rivers across the world. We apply a stochastic numerical model based on measurements of cosmogenic nuclides concentrations and calculate sediment residence times of 104–105 years in large rivers. These timescales are equal to or longer than climatic cycles, implying that changes to rates of erosion brought on by climatic variations are buffered during transport in large rivers and may not be recognizable in the sedimentary record.

Annual and decadal-scale hydroclimatic variability describes key characteristics that are embedded into climate in situ and is of prime importance in subtropical regions. The study of hydroclimatic variability is therefore crucial to understand its manifestation and implications for climate derivatives such as hydrological phenomena and water availability. However, the study of this variability from modern records is limited due to their relatively short span, whereas model simulations relying on modern dynamics could misrepresent some of its aspects. Here we study annual to decadal hydroclimatic variability in the Levant using two sedimentary sections covering ∼700 years each, from the depocenter of the Dead Sea, which has been continuously recording environmental conditions since the Pleistocene. We focus on two series of annually deposited laminated intervals (i.e., varves) that represent two episodes of opposing mean climates, deposited during MIS2 lake-level rise and fall at ∼27 and 18 ka, respectively. These two series comprise alternations of authigenic aragonite that precipitated during summer and flood-borne detrital laminae deposited by winter floods. Within this record, aragonite laminae form a proxy of annual inflow and the extent of epilimnion dilution, whereas detrital laminae are comprised of sub-laminae deposited by individual flooding events. The two series depict distinct characteristics with increased mean and variance of annual inflow and flood frequency during "wetter", with respect to the relatively "dryer", conditions, reflected by opposite lake-level changes. In addition, decades of intense flood frequency (clusters) are identified, reflecting the in situ impact of shifting centennial-scale climate regimes, which are particularly pronounced during wetter conditions. The combined application of multiple time series analyses suggests that the studied episodes are characterized by weak and non-significant cyclical components of sub-decadal frequencies. The interpretation of these observations using modern synoptic-scale hydroclimatology suggests that Pleistocene climate changes resulted in shifts in the dominance of the key synoptic systems that govern rainfall, annual inflow and flood frequency in the eastern Mediterranean Sea over centennial timescales.

Flash floods are among the most devastating and lethal natural hazards. In 2018, three flash-flood episodes resulted in 46 casualties in the deserts of Israel and Jordan alone. This paper presents the hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a substantial storm (25-27 April 2018) that hit an arid desert basin (Zin,

Orographic impact on extreme subdaily precipitation is critical for risk management but remains insufficiently understood due to complicated atmosphere-orography interactions and large uncertainties. We investigate the problem adopting a framework able to reduce uncertainties and isolate the systematic interaction of Mediterranean cyclones with a regular orographic barrier. The average decrease with elevation reported for hourly extremes is found enhanced at subhourly durations. Tail heaviness of 10-min intensities is negligibly affected by orography, suggesting self-similarity of the distributions at the convective scale. Orography decreases the tail heaviness at longer durations, with a maximum impact around hourly scales. These observations are explained by an orographically induced redistribution of precipitation toward stratiform-like processes, and by the succession of convective cores in multihour extremes. Our results imply a breaking of scale-invariance at subhourly durations, with important implications for natural hazards management in mountainous areas.

Abstract Projections of extreme precipitation based on modern climate models suffer from large uncertainties. Specifically, unresolved physics and natural variability limit the ability of climate models to provide actionable information on impacts and risks at the regional, watershed and city scales relevant for practical applications. Here, we show that the interaction of precipitating systems with local features can constrain the statistical description of extreme precipitation. These observational constraints can be used to project local extremes of low yearly exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year events) using synoptic-scale information from climate models, which is generally represented more accurately than the local scales, and without requiring climate models to explicitly resolve extremes. The novel approach, demonstrated here over the south-eastern Mediterranean, offers a path for improving the predictability of local statistics of extremes in a changing climate, independent of pending improvements in climate models at regional and local scales.

Water volume estimates of shallow desert lakes are the basis for water balance calculations, important both for water resource management and paleohydrology/climatology. Water volumes are typically inferred from bathymetry mapping; however, being shallow, ephemeral, and remote, bathymetric surveys are scarce in such lakes. We propose a new, remote-sensing-based, method to derive the bathymetry of such lakes using the relation between water occurrence, during >30 year of optical satellite data, and accurate elevation measurements from the new Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2). We demonstrate our method at three locations where we map bathymetries with $\sim$0.3 m error. This method complements other remotely sensed, bathymetry-mapping methods as it can be applied to: (a) complex lake systems with subbasins, (b) remote lakes with no in-situ records, and (c) flooded lakes. The proposed method can be easily implemented in other shallow lakes as it builds on publically accessible global data sets.